Димитров, Н. (2018) Прогнозиране на максималните годишни 24 часови валежи за региона на град Пловдив, България. Водно дело, 8(5/6): 33-39

The Extreme Value Theory (EVT) has been used to predict the maximum daily precipitation in the Plovdiv region, Bulgaria. The block maximum method is used with blocks of length one year. Extreme annual precipitation data from three weather stations covering the period from 1925 to 2014 has been used. The data is fitted statistically and visually for three models: the Generalized Extreme Value Distribution (GEV) model, the Gumbel’s model and the Normal Distribution. The GEV is defined as the best description of the data. The following three parameters of the model are estimated: location, scale and shape. The shape parameter is larger than 0, which means that as the return period increases, precipitation becomes more extreme. Extreme daily  precipitation and their confidence intervals were established at 50; 100; 1,000; and 10,000 years of return period.

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